US military aid to UF, Taliban defeat central to solving crisis

Recent international developments involving increasing dangers to United States interests from terrorists based in Taliban-occupied parts of Afghanistan have stirred increased activity in Washington. The US, along with Russia, have moved to contain the Taliban, who were this week termed as "a threat to the international community" by Karl F. Inderfurth, the US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs.

James A. Phillips, a respected US foreign policy and security specialist, has recently written two incisive analytic papers concerning terrorist threats, specifically Osama bin Laden, emanating from Taliban-occupied parts of Afghanistan. (Both articles are available through www.omaid.com.)

A research fellow at the distinguished Heritage Foundation, Mr. Phillips also serves on the Board of Editors of the Middle East Quarterly. He is also a former research fellow at the Congressional Research Service and the East–West Center.

Mr. Phillips earned his B.A. from Brown University and his M.A. and M.A.L.D. in International Security Studies from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

Osama bin Laden, the Taliban militia and the crisis in Afghanistan were the topics of his December 15 interview with Omaid Weekly.

Omaid Weekly: In your recent analysis, "The Cole Bombing...Moving Beyond 'The Usual Suspects'," you emphasize US support to the United Front -- a.k.a. the anti-Taliban opposition or Northern Alliance [eds: Both a misnomer for Afghanistan's national resistance force ] -- as part of an overall Washington strategy to combat terrorism, specifically Osama bin Laden. What sort of support?

James Phillips: Initially, humanitarian aid to help the thousands of refugees uprooted by the Taliban offensive. Also, political and diplomatic support for the Northern Alliance or United Front. I'm also pushing for military aid [to the UF] because that's the only thing the Taliban understands. Although the others [non-military aid] would be much easier and quicker in coming.

There are still people that think the Taliban may be influenced to expel bin Laden. I doubt that. But, it seems like that's one of the stronger arguments.

OW: Where does this thinking come from? And why does it persist despite Taliban actions [vis-à-vis bin Laden] over the past years?

JP: There are some in Washington that think Pakistan is increasingly disenchanted with the Taliban. Not only in a public relation sense, but that the Taliban increasingly is becoming a burden rather than a useful puppet. It seems like the Taliban are becoming more independent. And although they contribute to [Pakistan's] low intensity warfare strategy against India, the potential costs of that strategy are high; it's a risky policy.

OW: You've also mentioned international pressure on the militia and Pakistan. What kind of pressure? There have already been some pressures brought to bear, but they've been unsuccessful.

JP: The US and Russia are now talking to the [United Nations] Security Council of escalating sanctions against the Taliban, including an arms embargo. UN personnel have begun pulling out of Kabul.

The one-sided embargo on the Taliban is also important for symbolic reasons. It shows that the UN realizes that this isn't a factional battle -- that there is a major difference between the warring parties. It shows that the Security Council realizes that there is a major difference between the Taliban and the United Front.

OW: Will the embargo be effective? How would border control be implemented on Pakistan?

JP: It would be very difficult; it would have to have Pakistani cooperation. The Pakistanis, as far as I know, would not cooperate, at least in the short run. If they can be persuaded that supporting the Taliban costs them more than it helps them, then they would change their policy.

OW: But given what we've seen over the past eight years, which has been Pakistan trying to put anyone in power as long as the United Front or Ahmad Shah Masood is not in control, how can the US persuade Pakistan that the Taliban are more costly than beneficial? Would military aid to the United Front, which you mention, or military success by the United Front play into this? Or would some other method be used?

JP: I'm not calling for economic sanctions against Pakistan, but that we would not do them any more favors when it comes to renegotiating their extremely burdensome national debt. It's more not using a stick with Pakistan but withholding carrots.

The present regime in Pakistan is very isolated. It's weak domestically. Economically, Pakistan is not in great shape. They need a whole bunch of refinancing in the very near future.

Instead of penalizing Pakistan, the US could just not help Pakistan.

OW: Would the denial of such aid by the US lead to some sort of internal collapse in Pakistan?

JP: It possibly could. But in my opinion, the way their policy is going now it's almost inevitable -- [Pakistan is] going towards collapse. They are encouraging radical fundamentalists who by nature are not happy with the present military regime. The present regime is not making any preparations that I can see to hand Pak power back to a civilian government. It's backing itself into a corner.

I'm fairly sympathetic to the Pakistanis for the many sacrifices they made during the Cold War, especially in the Afghan war against the Soviets. But, the Pakistani ISI [InterServices Intelligence agency] elevated its goals from merely denying control of Afghanistan to the Soviets to gaining control over Afghanistan. That's self-defeating policy, it's bound to antagonize Afghans. We're already starting to see the Taliban bridle at the Pakistanis. Anecdotal reports of [Taliban] shaving the heads of Pakistani soccer players, banning them because they were wearing shorts. Things that you wouldn't think that a surrogate would do to a senior partner. The Taliban are falling more and more under the influence of bin Laden and radicals like him, and that's diluting Pakistani control. In the long run, Pakistan can't dominate Afghanistan through such an unpopular regime as the Taliban. That's common sense. One day Pakistan will realize that. It will probably take military victories by the United Front to do that.

OW: In your analyses, you mention an internal Afghan consensus. Are you referring to the former King’s Loya Jirga initiative, some other mechanism headed by the United Front, or something entirely different?

JP: The King's peace initiative is praiseworthy. I'm not sure if it'll work, but it's a possible face-saving solution if the Taliban accepts it. But, there are radicals in the Taliban that would never accept that kind of solution. So it depends on the internal balance of power.

OW: So would it take a defeat of at least that radical element of the Taliban to bring about some solution?

JP: There is a chance, although a small chance, the Taliban could evolve and moderate its policies. There are many people in Washington that hope for this. I think it's wishful thinking because bin Laden and others like him are encouraging the religious ideologues to hold out for more than they can hope for. The regime is increasingly unpopular, even in Pashtoon areas.

Continued in our next issue.

Loya Jirga delegation visit to Central Asia, Iran & Afghanistan a success

Washington, DC, Dec 17 (Omaid): In early November, a special delegation appointed by former Afghan King Mohammad Zahir Shah embarked on a tour of Central Asia, Iran and Afghanistan for discussions on the former King's peace plan.

In an interview with Omaid Weekly, Dr. Sayed M. Raheen said the delegation's visit to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Afghanistan was a success. Dr. Raheen, a member of the delegation, said the team departed from Rome on November 2 and traveled to Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan.

The Delegation met with the Uzbek Foreign Minister and other high-ranking government officials, said Dr. Raheen. The Uzbek Foreign Minister expressed his government's full support of the Loya Jirga initiative of the former Afghan King.

Dr. Raheen, who has participated in all stages of the Rome initiative's activities, said the Delegation was also visited by a team from the United States Embassy in Tashkent. The US Embassy team, headed by the American Ambassador, conferred with the Loya Jirga Delegation. That meeting was followed by deliberations with the Italian Ambassador to Uzbekistan, who came to the Delegation's quarters, located in the Uzbek Government's guest facilities in Tashkent.

While in Uzbekistan, the Delegation also met with the local Afghan community, which organized two large gatherings.

Dr. Raheen said the Afghans voiced their full support for the convening of an emergency Loya Jirga.

The Rome Delegation then set off for Afghanistan via Tajikistan. They were greeted by a large number of Afghans at the Uzbek-Tajik border, said Dr. Raheen. After a one night stay in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, the Delegation flew to Faizabad, capital of Badakhshan province.

In Afghanistan, Dr. Raheen said, the Loya Jirga Delegation held talks with Prof. Burhanuddin Rabbani. Prof. Rabbani is president of the United Nations-recognized government of Afghanistan. Prof. Rabbani expressed his administration's "resolute support" of an emergency Loya Jirga.

While in Faizabad, the Delegation visited a medical college, added Dr. Raheen. The college, attended mainly by female students, lacked supplies and the building was in need of repair. The Delegation spoke with a "cross-section" of Afghans, all of whom voiced their "urgent desire for the implementation of the Emergency Loya Jirga," Dr. Raheen said. The Afghans also "prayed for the success of the former King's peace plan."

The Delegation was also witness to the grave situation of refugees in Faizabad, who were displaced in the Taliban militia's recent offensive in neighboring Takhar province.

Dr. Raheen said a number of refugee children died during the night of the Delegation's visit to the provincial capital.

Dr. Raheen said the Delegation also met with Ahmad Shah Masood. Commander Masood is the supreme commander of Afghanistan's United Front national resistance force.

The Delegation, Dr. Raheen continued, detailed the former King's peace plan and the urgent need for an emergency Loya Jirga. Cmdr. Masood listened with "great care and attention," said Dr. Raheen. Furthermore, Cmdr. Masood gave some "useful recommendations" to the Delegation. Cmdr. Masood also expressed his "firm support for the implementation of the Loya Jirga and the former King's three-point peace plan," added Dr. Raheen.

The Delegation then returned to Dushanbe, where it conferred with Tajikistan's Minister of Foreign Affairs. The Foreign Minister said Tajikistan was fully dedicated to the restoration of peace in Afghanistan and was committed to aid in the peace process.

On a return trip to Rome via Uzbekistan, the Delegation again met with the Italian Ambassador to Uzbekistan, as well as the Ambassadors of Great Britain, France and Germany to that country. Dr. Raheen said the Delegation also met with representatives of Afghanistan's Shiite and Hazara populations who gave their support to the Loya Jirga.

After arriving in Rome, Dr. Raheen said "the Delegation provided His Majesty the former King with a detailed report of its trip to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan."

Soon after, the Delegation flew to Tehran for "deliberations with the Islamic Republic of Iran." Following an "official reception at Tehran airport," Dr. Raheen continued, the Delegation held deliberations with Mr. Aminzada, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister. The Delegation also spoke with the Iranian Foreign Ministry's Director of South Asian Affairs, as well as the Ministry's Director of Afghanistan Affairs.

All three officials, Dr. Raheen added, said the Islamic Republic supported the convening of the Loya Jirga. Tehran was concerned about the large Afghan refugee population in Iran, drug trafficking from Afghanistan and the consequent stifling of Iranian economic development, said Dr. Raheen.

Dr. Raheen said that it seemed Iran was also concerned about Arab terrorists operating from inside Afghanistan. Said one Iranian official to the Delegation, "Iran's call for a 'dialogue between civilizations' is testament to the Islamic Republic's support for the restoration of peace in Afghanistan."

The Delegation, Dr. Raheen continued, also met with prominent Afghan circles in Tehran, all of whom voiced support for the former King's peace plan.

Upon its return to Rome, Dr. Raheen said, the Delegation gave the former King a report on its visit to the Islamic Republic.

This week, in a communiqué to Omaid Weekly, the Rome-based Secretariat of the former King said another delegation has traveled to Saudi Arabia for negotiations on the Loya Jirga peace initiative.